Update #3 – Black Friday and Cyber Monday Trends

Just to reiterate, my conviction was that sales numbers for the Black Friday for a few mentioned retailers: Walmart, Amazon and Best Buy would come in lower in comparison to Black Friday 2012. Google Trends confirmed this as the current search volumes for the aforementioned retailers were significantly lower than Black Friday 2012 search volumes, suggesting a general lack of interest amongst internet users in searching for their favorite retailers and the respective deals that they had to offer.

Today, Bloomberg compiled sales data confirming the first year over year decline in Black Friday sales since 2009. (See article HERE) This decrease in Black Friday sales gives us a little preview of fourth quarter profit performance as Bloomberg reports that this may cause retailers to extend the sales period in an attempt to boost top line. As retailers extend sales, this will further hurt profits.

The power of Google Trends has done it again! While CNET suggested current year’s sales on Black Friday would surpass last year, Google Trends provided a different conclusion in that this was not likely. I originally brought this information forward to all my readers (Yes, all four of you!) as evidence to support holding off on investments in the retailers mentioned, and I think that this information has held true, whether this reflects in stock price movements is a different story as market trading activity can be very mysterious at times.

Search volumes for Cyber Monday should be in shortly and it will be interesting to see how retailers that are heavily reliant on internet sales (ie: Amazon) will fare.

Happy Trading!



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