March 2014 Unemployment Rate Predictions

This is a follow up post to my original post on the applicability of using google trends to forecast movements in US Unemployment rate. (See here for a refresher.)

Search volume for the term “Unemployment Benefits” during the month of March 2014 came in about 28% greater than the same period last year. This would suggest that the Bureau’s Unemployment Rate(which is to be issued over the next few days) should be making a move upward.

There also seems to be an upward trend in searches for the term when comparing March 2012, 2013 and 2014. If this trend holds up, I’d assume the unemployment rate would follow. See below for further details:

"Unemployment Benefits" Search Trend


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