Response to Unemployment Rate Prediction for April 2014

Please see “Unemployment Rate Prediction for April 2014” for further details.

Ref: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/opinion/a-better-economy-still-far-from-good.html?hp&rref=opinion&_r=0

Ref: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/17/jobless-claims/7813813/

April 2014 unemployment data saw a significant decrease in those unemployed with the rate dropping to 6.3% and employers adding 288,000 jobs. This result would seem at odds with the google trends prediction that the rate would go up. I argue that if you have a closer look at the numbers, that the google trends prediction was not that far off. A NY Times article, cites the US labor force participation rate for the month of April 2014 was 62.8% which was the lowest level since the late 1970’s and a USA Today article mentions that Unemployment Benefits saw an increase in the number of first time claimants which goes against the longer term decrease in trend.

Suffice to say, I believe that it is going to take a little more than a single month’s divergence with the google trends indicator before feeding it to the pigs.

Happy Trading!

TrendVesting


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.