June 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions

[See here for a refresher on the applicability of forecasting unemployment rate movements using google trends.]

The month of June 2014 has seen nominal Google searches for the term “Unemployment Benefits” reach 30, which has not changed much from nominal searches that took place during the same period in 2013, 2012 and 2011, suggesting no change in the unemployment rate for June.


Unemployment Benefits_June 2014

 

yoyChange_June2014

When you compare the current month’s nominal searches against the prior five months, you’ll also notice that the trend is moving in a downtrend suggesting an unemployment rate that should decrease or stay the course.

sixMonthTrend_June2014

 

Happy Trading!

Trendvesting


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