JULY 2014: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PREDICTIONS

[See here for a refresher on the applicability of forecasting unemployment rate movements using google trends.]

Unfortunately, due to conflicting priorities, this month’s unemployment rate prediction came in a bit later than it should have. The month of July 2014 has seen nominal Google searches for the term “Unemployment Benefits” reach 23, which is less than nominal searches during the same time last year, suggesting a decrease in the unemployment rate for July. Unfortunately, due to the recent release of the unemployment rate, it’s clear that this prediction goes against the actual unemployment rate, although the overall trend still remains lower suggesting that the increase in the July unemployment rate is only temporary. See nominal searches below:

july2014UE
july2014UE

Happy Trading!

TrendVesting


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