Presidential Elections Search Poll Update

Following up on a prior post documenting the predictive value of Google Trends in determining U.S. election outcomes, (see here) we decided to get an update on search counts for each of the presidential candidates: The week of 2016-10-09 saw searches for the term ‘Trump’ increase to their highest level over searches for ‘Clinton’. While this … More Presidential Elections Search Poll Update

JULY 2014: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PREDICTIONS

[See here for a refresher on the applicability of forecasting unemployment rate movements using google trends.] Unfortunately, due to conflicting priorities, this month’s unemployment rate prediction came in a bit later than it should have. The month of July 2014 has seen nominal Google searches for the term “Unemployment Benefits” reach 23, which is less than nominal searches during … More JULY 2014: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PREDICTIONS

June 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions

[See here for a refresher on the applicability of forecasting unemployment rate movements using google trends.] The month of June 2014 has seen nominal Google searches for the term “Unemployment Benefits” reach 30, which has not changed much from nominal searches that took place during the same period in 2013, 2012 and 2011, suggesting no change in the unemployment … More June 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions

May 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions

[See here for a refresher on the applicability of forecasting unemployment rate movements using google trends.] The month of May 2014 has seen the volume of searches for the term “Unemployment Benefits” in Google reach 32, which is greater than both May 2013 and May 2012, suggesting an increase in the unemployment rate for this month. See … More May 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions

Response to Unemployment Rate Prediction for April 2014

Please see “Unemployment Rate Prediction for April 2014” for further details. Ref: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/opinion/a-better-economy-still-far-from-good.html?hp&rref=opinion&_r=0 Ref: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/17/jobless-claims/7813813/ April 2014 unemployment data saw a significant decrease in those unemployed with the rate dropping to 6.3% and employers adding 288,000 jobs. This result would seem at odds with the google trends prediction that the rate would go up. I … More Response to Unemployment Rate Prediction for April 2014

April 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions *UPDATE*

[To reiterate, the google trends “unemployment benefits” indicator identified that the unemployment rate for the month of April 2014 would see an increase over the prior month. See here for further details.] One week ago, we checked in on google search volume for the term “Unemployment Benefits” and the count was at 45. With April behind us, the … More April 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions *UPDATE*

April 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions

[See here for a refresher on the applicability of forecasting unemployment rate movements using google trends.] With 10 days to go in the month of April, we have already seen searches for the term “Unemployment Benefits” surpass search volume levels for the same month last year. In fact, the search volume for the term has also outpaced … More April 2014: Unemployment Rate Predictions

How Google Trends Can Predict U.S. Unemployment Rate Movements

An interesting Forbes article that was released back in 2010 discusses how Google Search Volume for the term “Jobs” was an effective predictor of U.S. Unemployment rate movements. (See here for the article in question.) I can imagine that at the time the Forbes article was released that the term “Jobs” was effective at determining changes … More How Google Trends Can Predict U.S. Unemployment Rate Movements